I’ve been listening to the HBR Podcast (not free music, but a podcast nonetheless) and today I’m listening to an interview with Paul Saffo (Six Rules for Effective Forecasting). Several quotes and concepts stand out to me:

“Effective forecasting means rather than racing to a certain answer, you’re looking at the full range of uncertainty. Effective forecating is all about understanding the uncertainty that lies ahead and not rushing to a conclusion.” - Paul Saffo

In the world of investing you’re basically forecasting on how well some business will do with some thing.  Whether that thing is a contraption, software, a service or a concept matters little.  You’re taking a guess at what will take place.  When you invest in stocks, options, bonds or housing you are making predictions about how things will do.  The article linked to above is incredibly interesting as it relates to forecasting.  Having lost my shorts in the past in bad investing strategies (that weren’t based on any of the rules listed and in many cases flew against them) I’m interested in regaining my feet in the world of investing and making sound choices.  After reading this article, what do you think?

• No related posts.

This entry was posted on Thursday, July 12th, 2007 at 12:48 pm and is filed under Investing. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site. No tag for this post.